Shaft Sinkers
Artwork by Joan Cundall-Allen

Forecasts

Demand, Supply, Price

Our intimate knowledge of the supply of metals particularly from South African producers of PGMs, combined with our track record of forecasting demand in various sectors, flows through to our in-house developed algorithm that predicts PGM and gold prices with a greater degree of accuracy than most forecasters as shown, for example, by our track record as all-time joint best forecaster of the London Bullion Market Association (LMBA) precious metals survey (LBMA link).

In PGMs, we have developed an integrated forecasting system based on our projected sales of vehicles to 2040. These sales are split into various types of vehicles gaining or losing market share to meet forthcoming emissions legislation in different regions of the World, offset by thrifting or substitution (by another PGM metal) and building up to the next legislative emissions hurdle (which appear to coming round every 4 years).

Cars in the race for market share are gasoline, diesel, hybrid, fuel cell and electric. We have very clear views as to which vehicle will be the winner or loser over the next 20 years based on our own analysis and tempered by our widespread contacts in the business.

Our integrated model generates demand and supply balances which, together with another dependent variable, are used in the algorithm to forecast prices over the next 20 years.

These forecasts are updated continuously as new vectors emerge, such as the concerning COVId19 virus impact on Chinese and Global GDP, new climate change laws and a surge in populism and retreat into wealthy and poorer laagers and their effect on demand and supply.        

We have expertise in the following metals:

Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Iridium, Ruthenium (PGMs)

Vanadium, Manganese, Cobalt, Nickel, Copper (Bulk Metals)